11 Jan 2016
Gold: Likely to remain bearish for 2016 – Deutsche Bank
FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at Deutsche Bank, maintains their bearish outlook for gold in 2016.
Key Quotes
“Although Fed funds futures have priced in a normalisation of US policy at various points since 2009, a tightening cycle in US monetary policy is regarded as long overdue based on the Taylor rule, with a strong likelihood of further steps in 2016.
While a 25 bps hike in December may have little impact for precious metals given the strength of market expectation, we also expect three more rate hikes in 2016. If realised this would be a meaningful departure from the currently priced expectation and consequently, more negative for precious metals.”
Key Quotes
“Although Fed funds futures have priced in a normalisation of US policy at various points since 2009, a tightening cycle in US monetary policy is regarded as long overdue based on the Taylor rule, with a strong likelihood of further steps in 2016.
While a 25 bps hike in December may have little impact for precious metals given the strength of market expectation, we also expect three more rate hikes in 2016. If realised this would be a meaningful departure from the currently priced expectation and consequently, more negative for precious metals.”