14 Jan 2016
Dubious on the US recovery - Deutsche Bank
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at Deutsche Bank explained that another unique part of the current Fed hiking cycle is that it has started at a time of disappointing US data releases.
Key Quotes:
"The last year has seen the longest run of uninterrupted negative US data surprises going all the way back to the early 2000s. Similarly, the number of economists expecting 3%+ growth this year has dropped to a new post-crisis low according to the Philly Fed survey of professional forecasters. The odds are therefore skewed the other way."
"Even if it will only take two Fed hikes to make the dollar a high-yielder, there are upside risks to both growth expectations and the number of Fed hikes that are priced in."
Key Quotes:
"The last year has seen the longest run of uninterrupted negative US data surprises going all the way back to the early 2000s. Similarly, the number of economists expecting 3%+ growth this year has dropped to a new post-crisis low according to the Philly Fed survey of professional forecasters. The odds are therefore skewed the other way."
"Even if it will only take two Fed hikes to make the dollar a high-yielder, there are upside risks to both growth expectations and the number of Fed hikes that are priced in."