14 Jan 2016
China: Better than expected trade data implies stabilising or even improving demand – Nomura
FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at Nomura, notes that Chinese export growth in USD terms rebounded to -1.4% y-o-y in December from -6.8% in November, much better than expected (Consensus: -8.0%; Nomura: -4.4%).
Key Quotes
“Growth of exports to developed markets all improved: those to the US to -3.7% y-o-y from -6.4% in November; to the EU to 1.7% from -9.5%; and to Japan to -4.6% from -10.6%. However, growth of exports to Asia and other emerging markets was more varied, with growth of those to Asean countries and Korea falling to -6.4% y-o-y from -2.9% y-o-y and to 0.9% from 1.3%, respectively, while growth of those to South Africa and India improved to -9.9% from -27.6% and to 6.5% from -0.3%, respectively, in November.
Import growth in USD terms also continued to improve, reaching -7.6% y-o-y in December from -8.7% in November, against expectations of a further decline (Consensus: -11.0%; Nomura: -13.0%), leading to a wider trade surplus of USD60.1bn from USD54.1bn the previous month. The data suggest a stabilisation, or even an improvement, in domestic demand. Ordinary import growth rose to -7.5% y-o-y in December from -15.6% in November. Moreover, if key commodities (crude oil, iron ore and copper) imports are excluded, then growth rose to 1.9% from -9.0% – the first positive growth in 18 months.”
Key Quotes
“Growth of exports to developed markets all improved: those to the US to -3.7% y-o-y from -6.4% in November; to the EU to 1.7% from -9.5%; and to Japan to -4.6% from -10.6%. However, growth of exports to Asia and other emerging markets was more varied, with growth of those to Asean countries and Korea falling to -6.4% y-o-y from -2.9% y-o-y and to 0.9% from 1.3%, respectively, while growth of those to South Africa and India improved to -9.9% from -27.6% and to 6.5% from -0.3%, respectively, in November.
Import growth in USD terms also continued to improve, reaching -7.6% y-o-y in December from -8.7% in November, against expectations of a further decline (Consensus: -11.0%; Nomura: -13.0%), leading to a wider trade surplus of USD60.1bn from USD54.1bn the previous month. The data suggest a stabilisation, or even an improvement, in domestic demand. Ordinary import growth rose to -7.5% y-o-y in December from -15.6% in November. Moreover, if key commodities (crude oil, iron ore and copper) imports are excluded, then growth rose to 1.9% from -9.0% – the first positive growth in 18 months.”