18 Jan 2016
NZD/USD: daily RSI oversold, momentum flat on 0.64 handle
FXStreet (Guatemala) - NZD/USD has been under pressure this year falling away from the vicinity of the 200 dma at 0.6789 and falling to recent lows of 0.6381.
Pressures on the commodity sector, oil now below the psychological $30 mark (WTI last low $28.25) and China have all been weighing on the bird. In the absence of the RBNZ so far this year, speculation is mounting that the central bank may need to act again sooner than later this year.
"The NZ data calendar highlight this week will be the release of Q4 CPI on Thu. We forecast -0.4% qoq (+0.2% yoy) which is slightly below the RBNZ’s forecast and won’t help the ailing NZD. Also important this week will be the GDT dairy auction, futures markets signalling little change in prices," explained Imre Speizer, analyst at Westpac Banking Corporation who added, "The US labour market is looking strong and that should eventually result in wage inflation, in turn causing the Fed to tighten further. In contrast, the RBNZ should retain its easing bias, and markets will increasingly price in further rate cuts in 2016. In addition, low oil prices will act as a headwind for NZ dairy product prices, and thus the NZD."
NZD/USD levels
Technically, the downside is favoured while trading below the 100 DMA at 0.6576 and the 200 dam at 0.6789. The August lows of 0.6220 are key target for the medium term with S3 at 0.6332. However, with daily RSI (14) in oversold territory, a phase of consolidation might be expected around the 0.64 handle.
Pressures on the commodity sector, oil now below the psychological $30 mark (WTI last low $28.25) and China have all been weighing on the bird. In the absence of the RBNZ so far this year, speculation is mounting that the central bank may need to act again sooner than later this year.
"The NZ data calendar highlight this week will be the release of Q4 CPI on Thu. We forecast -0.4% qoq (+0.2% yoy) which is slightly below the RBNZ’s forecast and won’t help the ailing NZD. Also important this week will be the GDT dairy auction, futures markets signalling little change in prices," explained Imre Speizer, analyst at Westpac Banking Corporation who added, "The US labour market is looking strong and that should eventually result in wage inflation, in turn causing the Fed to tighten further. In contrast, the RBNZ should retain its easing bias, and markets will increasingly price in further rate cuts in 2016. In addition, low oil prices will act as a headwind for NZ dairy product prices, and thus the NZD."
NZD/USD levels
Technically, the downside is favoured while trading below the 100 DMA at 0.6576 and the 200 dam at 0.6789. The August lows of 0.6220 are key target for the medium term with S3 at 0.6332. However, with daily RSI (14) in oversold territory, a phase of consolidation might be expected around the 0.64 handle.