7 Nov 2013
Flash: Attentions move from MPC to Inflation Report – RBS
FXstreet.com (London) - Analysts at The Royal Bank of Scotland noted that the MPC left monetary policy settings unaltered in November, as was universally expected and attention turns to the November Inflation Report, 10:30 on Wednesday 13 November .
Key Quotes:
“There was no statement, presumably also in line with expectations given that there hasn't been one since July”.
“Attention turns to the November Inflation Report, 10:30 on Wednesday 13 November – with an 'off-the-record technical briefing' for City economists at 12:30). The MPC Minutes (including the votes) follow a week after that (09:30 on 20 November)”.
“The policy votes in November are highly likely to have been unanimous (as per each of the previous four meetings). We do not expect any individual votes for Bank Rate rises for a few quarters – though the MPC's November Inflation Report GDP and CPI forecasts are likely to be broadly in line with the projections when 2-3 members were voting for higher rates during H1 2011”.
“We expect the MPC's November Inflation Report forecasts to show a modest upward revision to GDP (the BoE is already a little above consensus) and to bring forward the point at which the unemployment rate falls to 7% (probably by two quarters to Q1 2016). In essence, a moderately 'hawkish' BoE shift in forecasts and the implicit policy guidance, but probably counterbalanced to some extent by more dovish/cautious rhetoric”.
Key Quotes:
“There was no statement, presumably also in line with expectations given that there hasn't been one since July”.
“Attention turns to the November Inflation Report, 10:30 on Wednesday 13 November – with an 'off-the-record technical briefing' for City economists at 12:30). The MPC Minutes (including the votes) follow a week after that (09:30 on 20 November)”.
“The policy votes in November are highly likely to have been unanimous (as per each of the previous four meetings). We do not expect any individual votes for Bank Rate rises for a few quarters – though the MPC's November Inflation Report GDP and CPI forecasts are likely to be broadly in line with the projections when 2-3 members were voting for higher rates during H1 2011”.
“We expect the MPC's November Inflation Report forecasts to show a modest upward revision to GDP (the BoE is already a little above consensus) and to bring forward the point at which the unemployment rate falls to 7% (probably by two quarters to Q1 2016). In essence, a moderately 'hawkish' BoE shift in forecasts and the implicit policy guidance, but probably counterbalanced to some extent by more dovish/cautious rhetoric”.