12 Feb 2016
Commodities: Gold surges while crude tumbles - ANZ
Research Team at ANZ, lists down the recent developments in commodities market.
Key Quotes
“Crude oil prices were weaker. WTI prices tested the USD26/bbl level during the intraday session. Concerns around rising US crude stockpiles have led to a widening of the spread between Brent and WTI. Inventories at Cushing, the delivery point for WTI futures, rose to 64.7m bbl, the highest level on record (going back to 2004). Comments from the UAE Energy Minister that OPEC was willing to cooperate on production cuts had little impact. We view this as further jawboning, with the likelihood of a coordinated response on supply cuts very low.
Base and precious metals were mixed. The dovish Fed outlook has pushed gold prices to one-year highs. However the risk-off sentiment that pervaded markets overnight saw gold briefly push above USD1,260/oz amid rising safe haven buying, making it the best performing commodity in 2016. Base metals suffered from a wave of risk-off sentiment, due to slumping equity markets. Nickel took the brunt of selling, falling to the lowest level since April 2003, while copper held up relatively well due to another fall in inventories on the LME.
Iron ore prices were weaker. Rising iron ore cargoes from major exporters suggest supply is quickly returning to normal. We believe Chinese steel producers have little incentive to buy iron ore above USD45/t, with the majority of the steel industry still losing money. The blast furnace profitability index is still trading in negative territory.
Agri markets were mixed. Soybean prices were stronger, supported by a weaker USD. The USDA data released this week suggested soybean exports from the US rebounded. However, a weaker Brazilian real (BRL) saw sugar fall heavily. Increased offers at auctions in Brazil also weighed on prices.”
Key Quotes
“Crude oil prices were weaker. WTI prices tested the USD26/bbl level during the intraday session. Concerns around rising US crude stockpiles have led to a widening of the spread between Brent and WTI. Inventories at Cushing, the delivery point for WTI futures, rose to 64.7m bbl, the highest level on record (going back to 2004). Comments from the UAE Energy Minister that OPEC was willing to cooperate on production cuts had little impact. We view this as further jawboning, with the likelihood of a coordinated response on supply cuts very low.
Base and precious metals were mixed. The dovish Fed outlook has pushed gold prices to one-year highs. However the risk-off sentiment that pervaded markets overnight saw gold briefly push above USD1,260/oz amid rising safe haven buying, making it the best performing commodity in 2016. Base metals suffered from a wave of risk-off sentiment, due to slumping equity markets. Nickel took the brunt of selling, falling to the lowest level since April 2003, while copper held up relatively well due to another fall in inventories on the LME.
Iron ore prices were weaker. Rising iron ore cargoes from major exporters suggest supply is quickly returning to normal. We believe Chinese steel producers have little incentive to buy iron ore above USD45/t, with the majority of the steel industry still losing money. The blast furnace profitability index is still trading in negative territory.
Agri markets were mixed. Soybean prices were stronger, supported by a weaker USD. The USDA data released this week suggested soybean exports from the US rebounded. However, a weaker Brazilian real (BRL) saw sugar fall heavily. Increased offers at auctions in Brazil also weighed on prices.”