12 Feb 2016
Forthcoming data for AUD/USD traders - TDS
Analysts at TD Securities explained the forthcoming data for AUD/USD traders.
Key Quotes:
"Employment has overshot job vacancies in recent months, so we expect a small +5k. Raw data is a big negative (-215k) but the 6yr ave (sa) is +25k, so +5k is weaker than “average” after a strong 2015, but more consistent with job vacs. Assuming a small uptick in the participation rate to 65.2% increases the unemployment rate to 5.9%.
The January 2015 trade report was exceptionally weak, so even “less weak” generates solid annual growth. Exports to HK jumped in Dec (seasonal) so expect a reversal in Jan, but even then annual exports growth pops to 2.0%. Import volumes were strong in Dec, so we expect a corrective decline in Jan, but even then, annual growth pops to +2.7%/yr. Trade surplus still around $US65b."
Key Quotes:
"Employment has overshot job vacancies in recent months, so we expect a small +5k. Raw data is a big negative (-215k) but the 6yr ave (sa) is +25k, so +5k is weaker than “average” after a strong 2015, but more consistent with job vacs. Assuming a small uptick in the participation rate to 65.2% increases the unemployment rate to 5.9%.
The January 2015 trade report was exceptionally weak, so even “less weak” generates solid annual growth. Exports to HK jumped in Dec (seasonal) so expect a reversal in Jan, but even then annual exports growth pops to 2.0%. Import volumes were strong in Dec, so we expect a corrective decline in Jan, but even then, annual growth pops to +2.7%/yr. Trade surplus still around $US65b."