16 Feb 2016
Commodities glut here to stay? - ANZ
Analysts at ANZ noted that, overnight, Saudi Arabia and Russia reached a preliminary agreement to freeze their oil output at near-record levels.
Key Quotes:
"This is described by Bloomberg as “the first significant cooperation between OPEC and non-OPEC producers in 15 years”."
"Qatar and Venezuela are also on board. No cuts in production were agreed, however, given oil producers are battling for long-term market share, which weakens the impact of the agreement significantly, as does the lack of involvement by Iraq and Iran."
"Oil prices are currently around 70% lower than their 2014 peak, and appear to be headed still lower on current global production rates. Certainly the market’s response to the agreement suggested they are underwhelmed: oil fell back having gained before the meeting."
"Oil prices at current levels are profitable for very few, and so we find ourselves in that classic commodity equation: the best cure for low prices is low prices. But in this stubborn industry it could be a while."
"Of course our own dairy industry has shades of the same, with politics – particularly in Europe – getting in the way of a natural market supply response to lower prices.
It will come as something of a relief that prices didn’t fall by more overnight, given the signals from NZX futures, but prices remain well below break-even for farmers, and look likely to remain in that zone for quite some time."
Key Quotes:
"This is described by Bloomberg as “the first significant cooperation between OPEC and non-OPEC producers in 15 years”."
"Qatar and Venezuela are also on board. No cuts in production were agreed, however, given oil producers are battling for long-term market share, which weakens the impact of the agreement significantly, as does the lack of involvement by Iraq and Iran."
"Oil prices are currently around 70% lower than their 2014 peak, and appear to be headed still lower on current global production rates. Certainly the market’s response to the agreement suggested they are underwhelmed: oil fell back having gained before the meeting."
"Oil prices at current levels are profitable for very few, and so we find ourselves in that classic commodity equation: the best cure for low prices is low prices. But in this stubborn industry it could be a while."
"Of course our own dairy industry has shades of the same, with politics – particularly in Europe – getting in the way of a natural market supply response to lower prices.
It will come as something of a relief that prices didn’t fall by more overnight, given the signals from NZX futures, but prices remain well below break-even for farmers, and look likely to remain in that zone for quite some time."