17 Feb 2016
USD/CNH spikes higher, chatter of more flexible Yuan regime
USD/CNH has spiked higher in early Tokyo, taking the exchange rate from a NY close of 6.5150 up towards 6.53, a 150 pips or 0.23% rise, ahead of the PBOC Tokyo fix.
The initial buy-side reaction in USD/CNH has sometimes led to believe that the PBOC may set today's USD/CNY at a higher price. Despite the PBOC has relaxed its Yuan devaluation campaign and fixes have been more stable in recent weeks, the rise in the pair this time may be perceived as yet again speculation that the PBOC is open, yet again, to a more flexible FX regime, given the stabilization of equities.
In a recent article by Nomura, the bank believes that enough evidence has been given by the PBOC in recent fixes, especially after the first positive error in Nomura's USD/CNY fix model yesterday (did not occur since Jan 7th), to make them think that "a policy shift towards greater FX flexibility in the Chinese Yuan is possible." Nomura notes that "the regime of consistent lower-than-projected fixes has changed."
The initial buy-side reaction in USD/CNH has sometimes led to believe that the PBOC may set today's USD/CNY at a higher price. Despite the PBOC has relaxed its Yuan devaluation campaign and fixes have been more stable in recent weeks, the rise in the pair this time may be perceived as yet again speculation that the PBOC is open, yet again, to a more flexible FX regime, given the stabilization of equities.
In a recent article by Nomura, the bank believes that enough evidence has been given by the PBOC in recent fixes, especially after the first positive error in Nomura's USD/CNY fix model yesterday (did not occur since Jan 7th), to make them think that "a policy shift towards greater FX flexibility in the Chinese Yuan is possible." Nomura notes that "the regime of consistent lower-than-projected fixes has changed."