24 Feb 2016
Tighter link between oil and EM FX – Goldman Sachs
Research Team at Goldman Sachs, suggests that the oil price has recently become more important for EM FX.
Key Quotes
“Since the start of the year, a broad set of EMs, and not just oil exporters like Russia, Mexico and Colombia, have seen their currencies closely track global oil price movements.
Aside from oil exporters such as RUB and COP, EM currencies have not, in general, become more sensitive to daily fluctuations in the oil price. However, for nearly all EMs, oil has recently become a much more-important driver of EM FX, relative to all other factors. This is not only true for oil exporters such as COP, RUB, MXN but also in the case of other EMs, including oil importers. For example, in the 2 years before the 2014 oil price shock, day-to-day fluctuations in the oil price accounted for only (roughly) 2% of the day-to-day volatility of the INR. Over the past quarter, this has increased to (roughly) 15%.”
Key Quotes
“Since the start of the year, a broad set of EMs, and not just oil exporters like Russia, Mexico and Colombia, have seen their currencies closely track global oil price movements.
Aside from oil exporters such as RUB and COP, EM currencies have not, in general, become more sensitive to daily fluctuations in the oil price. However, for nearly all EMs, oil has recently become a much more-important driver of EM FX, relative to all other factors. This is not only true for oil exporters such as COP, RUB, MXN but also in the case of other EMs, including oil importers. For example, in the 2 years before the 2014 oil price shock, day-to-day fluctuations in the oil price accounted for only (roughly) 2% of the day-to-day volatility of the INR. Over the past quarter, this has increased to (roughly) 15%.”