25 Feb 2016
EUR/USD forecast: focus on EMU, US data – Commerzbank and UOB
EUR/USD has managed to bounce off recent lows in the mid-1.0900s and it has regained the 1.10 handle ahead of significant data in the euro area and the US due later in the session.
Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, suggested the pair “is approaching the base of the channel currently circa 1.0943, we note the TD perfected set up on the daily and for now will exit our short positions, as we suspect that this will hold the initial test. Longer term we would treat a close below here as the trigger for the resumption of the bear trend and target a move to 1.0560/1.0457”.
In addition, the research team at UOB Group argued “While EUR touched a low of 1.0955, it rebounded quickly to close almost unchanged for the day. As highlighted in recent updates, despite the generally negative undertone, we prefer to wait for a daily closing below 1.0990 before turning bearish. From here, a move back above 1.1085 is enough to suggest that the short-term downward pressure has eased”.
Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, suggested the pair “is approaching the base of the channel currently circa 1.0943, we note the TD perfected set up on the daily and for now will exit our short positions, as we suspect that this will hold the initial test. Longer term we would treat a close below here as the trigger for the resumption of the bear trend and target a move to 1.0560/1.0457”.
In addition, the research team at UOB Group argued “While EUR touched a low of 1.0955, it rebounded quickly to close almost unchanged for the day. As highlighted in recent updates, despite the generally negative undertone, we prefer to wait for a daily closing below 1.0990 before turning bearish. From here, a move back above 1.1085 is enough to suggest that the short-term downward pressure has eased”.