25 Feb 2016
Positioning for risk uncertainty via short AUDUSD targeting 0.6850 - BNPP
Research Team at BNP Paribas, has initiated a new short AUDUSD spot trade recommendation with a 0.6850 target and the stop loss placed at 0.7280.
Key Quotes
“Consistent with a recent RBA comment that the AUD is “a bit too high” BNP Paribas CLEER™, our medium-term fair value model, is signalling that a level of 0.65 would be more appropriate. The RBA meets next week and could send a stronger message on FX in its official statement.
We also suspect that a strong M&A pipeline, as signalled by our G10 FX Flow Monitor, may have contributed to AUD resilience until recently, but that pipeline has now turned negative. Finally, we see AUDUSD shorts as resilient under different risk scenarios – a renewed equity sell-off would likely put pressure on the commodity-bloc currencies, while continued equity market recovery could eventually lift US yields and the USD more broadly.
On the newsflow overnight, Australian Q4 capex data was better than expected, rising 0.8% q/q. However, this reflects stability following a 19% drop over the prior four quarters.”
Key Quotes
“Consistent with a recent RBA comment that the AUD is “a bit too high” BNP Paribas CLEER™, our medium-term fair value model, is signalling that a level of 0.65 would be more appropriate. The RBA meets next week and could send a stronger message on FX in its official statement.
We also suspect that a strong M&A pipeline, as signalled by our G10 FX Flow Monitor, may have contributed to AUD resilience until recently, but that pipeline has now turned negative. Finally, we see AUDUSD shorts as resilient under different risk scenarios – a renewed equity sell-off would likely put pressure on the commodity-bloc currencies, while continued equity market recovery could eventually lift US yields and the USD more broadly.
On the newsflow overnight, Australian Q4 capex data was better than expected, rising 0.8% q/q. However, this reflects stability following a 19% drop over the prior four quarters.”