26 Feb 2016
US: Geared up to be a busy day with Q4 GDP in focus - TDS
Research Team at TDS, suggests that it is geared up to be a busy day on the US data front.
Key Quotes
“January’s advanced goods trade balance is projected to reveal a narrowing of December’s $61.5bn deficit. TD expects a 0.4% m/m rebound in exports will help reduce the deficit to -$60.4bn, smaller than the market consensus for a -$61.2bn print.
Personal income for January will benefit from a healthy labour market and is expected by the market to rise 0.4% m/m. We are more optimistic on income growth and are calling for 0.5% m/m following a significant improvement in hourly earnings and hours worked in January’s nonfarm payrolls report. Both TD and the market expect spending to rise by 0.3% on a monthly basis and core PCE by 0.1% m/m.
The second reading of Q4 GDP is expected to reveal slower growth than initially reported in January. TD expects growth to be revised downwards to an annualized 0.5%, reflecting the worsening tone of economic data. The market is even more pessimistic and predicts a second print of 0.4%.
Rounding out the calendar is the final print of the University of Michigan’s consumer confidence. TD looks for a further deterioration of sentiment to 89.8 (market: 91.0).”
Key Quotes
“January’s advanced goods trade balance is projected to reveal a narrowing of December’s $61.5bn deficit. TD expects a 0.4% m/m rebound in exports will help reduce the deficit to -$60.4bn, smaller than the market consensus for a -$61.2bn print.
Personal income for January will benefit from a healthy labour market and is expected by the market to rise 0.4% m/m. We are more optimistic on income growth and are calling for 0.5% m/m following a significant improvement in hourly earnings and hours worked in January’s nonfarm payrolls report. Both TD and the market expect spending to rise by 0.3% on a monthly basis and core PCE by 0.1% m/m.
The second reading of Q4 GDP is expected to reveal slower growth than initially reported in January. TD expects growth to be revised downwards to an annualized 0.5%, reflecting the worsening tone of economic data. The market is even more pessimistic and predicts a second print of 0.4%.
Rounding out the calendar is the final print of the University of Michigan’s consumer confidence. TD looks for a further deterioration of sentiment to 89.8 (market: 91.0).”