29 Feb 2016
EUR shorts have fallen for seven consecutive weeks - Rabobank
Jane Foley, Research Analyst at Rabobank, lists down the IMM Net Speculators’ Positioning as at 23 February 2016.
Key Quotes
• “Despite the step up in dovish rhetoric from ECB President Draghi this year, EUR shorts have fallen for seven consecutive weeks. This may reflect of a lack of risk appetite.
• USD longs have declined for the past three weeks, though better US CPI inflation, PCE and Q4 GDP data could lend some support.
• JPY longs increased again last week on the back of safe haven demand, pushing up to their highest levels since 2012. The BoJ’s negative interest rate has had little impact in fending off inflows.
• Despite the sharp drop in GBP in the spot market last week in reflection of Brexit fears, net sterling shorts moved lower. Attention is set to be dominated by politics in the approach to the June 23 EU referendum.
• CHF positions are holding in negative territory although overall net shorts have edged down. In the spot market the CHF has lost ground vs. the USD lately, though it has recovered some ground vs. the EUR in recent sessions ahead of the March 10 ECB meeting.
• Net AUD positions held positive ground, though latest economic data are questioning the more upbeat domestic outlook. CAD shorts dropped again. The outlook for crude oil prices remains a key focus.”
Key Quotes
• “Despite the step up in dovish rhetoric from ECB President Draghi this year, EUR shorts have fallen for seven consecutive weeks. This may reflect of a lack of risk appetite.
• USD longs have declined for the past three weeks, though better US CPI inflation, PCE and Q4 GDP data could lend some support.
• JPY longs increased again last week on the back of safe haven demand, pushing up to their highest levels since 2012. The BoJ’s negative interest rate has had little impact in fending off inflows.
• Despite the sharp drop in GBP in the spot market last week in reflection of Brexit fears, net sterling shorts moved lower. Attention is set to be dominated by politics in the approach to the June 23 EU referendum.
• CHF positions are holding in negative territory although overall net shorts have edged down. In the spot market the CHF has lost ground vs. the USD lately, though it has recovered some ground vs. the EUR in recent sessions ahead of the March 10 ECB meeting.
• Net AUD positions held positive ground, though latest economic data are questioning the more upbeat domestic outlook. CAD shorts dropped again. The outlook for crude oil prices remains a key focus.”