13 Mar 2016
Commodities: CFTC wrap-up and big swings - TDS
In respect of commodities, analysts at TD Securities offered a summary of the CFTC commitment of traders report for the week ending March 8th, 2016.
Key Quotes:
"Another sharp reversal in copper spec positioning last week, and now just -1.8% of O.I. net short from as deeply pessimistic as -21.7% of O.I. early in the year. This was led by optimism regarding the need for further copper demand stimulating policies in the wake of the Chinese NPC targets. However, with optimism waning this week, and much of the short-covering out of the way (back to late-2015 levels), while prices lose steam well short of the ~$5,300/t levels of that period, copper looks at risk of a correction.
Specs in palladium saw a sharp move to cover a hefty amount of short positions, and lifted the net position off the lows reached last week that had not been seen since 2006. While optimism about China and the shine of precious metals, under the threat of more central bank monetary easing, helped to push the bears away, spec long holders were also seen exiting further in smalls. This suggests a breaking upside resistance (~$585-$595/oz) will be tough without a turn in the still bearish sentiment toward the metal."
Key Quotes:
"Another sharp reversal in copper spec positioning last week, and now just -1.8% of O.I. net short from as deeply pessimistic as -21.7% of O.I. early in the year. This was led by optimism regarding the need for further copper demand stimulating policies in the wake of the Chinese NPC targets. However, with optimism waning this week, and much of the short-covering out of the way (back to late-2015 levels), while prices lose steam well short of the ~$5,300/t levels of that period, copper looks at risk of a correction.
Specs in palladium saw a sharp move to cover a hefty amount of short positions, and lifted the net position off the lows reached last week that had not been seen since 2006. While optimism about China and the shine of precious metals, under the threat of more central bank monetary easing, helped to push the bears away, spec long holders were also seen exiting further in smalls. This suggests a breaking upside resistance (~$585-$595/oz) will be tough without a turn in the still bearish sentiment toward the metal."