28 Mar 2016
EU referendum will be front and centre until the 23 June vote - TDS
Research Team at TDS, suggests that the closely-fought EU referendum will be front and centre until the 23 June vote.
Key Quotes
“Survey evidence from February suggests businesses are worried and might postpone spending. 16Q2 is therefore likely to be a soft quarter, with H2 determined by the outcome of the vote. If Remain wins, expect a bounce in 16Q3 growth and the BoE to hike around year-end. If Leave wins, heightened uncertainty and risks of recession abound.
Brexit risks have come to the forefront as investors look ahead to June's referendum. This will keep GBP weak vs its peers as the domestic economy has lost some momentum and the BoE is likely to remain on hold until Q4. A vote to remain in the EU will see GBP weakness quickly reverse, while a decision to leave heralds risks of significant weakness ahead.”
Key Quotes
“Survey evidence from February suggests businesses are worried and might postpone spending. 16Q2 is therefore likely to be a soft quarter, with H2 determined by the outcome of the vote. If Remain wins, expect a bounce in 16Q3 growth and the BoE to hike around year-end. If Leave wins, heightened uncertainty and risks of recession abound.
Brexit risks have come to the forefront as investors look ahead to June's referendum. This will keep GBP weak vs its peers as the domestic economy has lost some momentum and the BoE is likely to remain on hold until Q4. A vote to remain in the EU will see GBP weakness quickly reverse, while a decision to leave heralds risks of significant weakness ahead.”