29 Mar 2016
Expect NZD/USD to be lower by mid-2016 - Westpac
Imre Speizer, Senior Market Strategist at Westpac, notes that the last week NZD/USD tested, but was repelled by, the top of a contracting range which has formed since Sep 2015.
Key Quotes
“The boundaries are currently at 0.64 and 0.69, and until we get a break, NZD/USD will be uninteresting from a medium-term technical point of view. Fundamentally, the NZ-US interest rate outlook argues for lower, but there’s an absence of major NZ data catalysts until 18 April (CPI) so that US developments will probably provide the lead during the next few weeks. We are thus neutral around 0.6700 for this week.
The NZ calendar remains light this week. ANZ business confidence (Thu) does occasionally get a market response, and on this occasion its inflation expectations related components will be noteworthy given the recent commentary from the RBNZ. Building permits are also out (Wed).
3 months: We expect NZD/USD to be lower by mid-2016, due to a combination of a lower OCR and a higher US interest rates. In addition, NZ commodity prices are expected to remain soft. However, there is a risk that the recent surge in global risk sentiment, manifested by higher equity and commodity prices could persist and offset the negative NZ interest rate argument. We target the Jan low of 0.64.
1 year: Our macro-economic based forecast for one-year ahead is 0.62, based mainly on a lower OCR and a higher US Fed rate.”
Key Quotes
“The boundaries are currently at 0.64 and 0.69, and until we get a break, NZD/USD will be uninteresting from a medium-term technical point of view. Fundamentally, the NZ-US interest rate outlook argues for lower, but there’s an absence of major NZ data catalysts until 18 April (CPI) so that US developments will probably provide the lead during the next few weeks. We are thus neutral around 0.6700 for this week.
The NZ calendar remains light this week. ANZ business confidence (Thu) does occasionally get a market response, and on this occasion its inflation expectations related components will be noteworthy given the recent commentary from the RBNZ. Building permits are also out (Wed).
3 months: We expect NZD/USD to be lower by mid-2016, due to a combination of a lower OCR and a higher US interest rates. In addition, NZ commodity prices are expected to remain soft. However, there is a risk that the recent surge in global risk sentiment, manifested by higher equity and commodity prices could persist and offset the negative NZ interest rate argument. We target the Jan low of 0.64.
1 year: Our macro-economic based forecast for one-year ahead is 0.62, based mainly on a lower OCR and a higher US Fed rate.”