AUD: Recovery across the non-mining economy is on track - NAB

Research Team at NAB, suggests that the recent Australian business survey outcomes suggest the recovery across the non-mining economy is on track or indeed gathering speed.

Key Quotes

“Overall, our real GDP forecasts are broadly unchanged at 2.7% in 2016, 3.0% in 2017, and easing to 2.5% in 2018 as the large contribution from net exports dissipates. The unemployment rate is forecast to fall to 5.6% by end-16 and 5.5% by end-17 before ticking up in 2018.

We retain our view that the RBA will remain on hold through 2016, although this will depend on the path of the currency, inflation and the labour market. Lower than target inflation in conjunction with an AUD above 80 US cents and any evidence of a faltering non-mining recovery would see further rate cut(s).”