28 Apr 2016
Brexit: The surge in remain support is a mirage – TDS
James Rossiter, Senior Global Strategist at TDS, notes that the last two weeks have seen an apparent widening in poll results in favour of a Remain win, with polls more often showing a 10-point lead than not.
Key Quotes
“Commonly-reported moving averages of opinion polls also show this pick-up.
This does not reflect a shift in view of the electorate, but rather a shift in polling methods. Looking through some of this noise, a more stable pattern emerges that suggests little change in view by voters.
Going forward, we recommend tracking developments in online and telephone polls separately.”
Key Quotes
“Commonly-reported moving averages of opinion polls also show this pick-up.
This does not reflect a shift in view of the electorate, but rather a shift in polling methods. Looking through some of this noise, a more stable pattern emerges that suggests little change in view by voters.
Going forward, we recommend tracking developments in online and telephone polls separately.”