US: Only 4% probability of a hike on June 15 - Rabobank

Piotr Matys, EM FX Strategist at Rabobank, suggests that today’s US data calendar is fairly light with wholesale inventories are expected to post a modest rise of 0.1% m/m in March after falling 0.5% m/m in February.

Key Quotes

“The NFIB small business optimism is anticipated to rise to 93 in April from 92.6 in previous month. Such a rebound would be an encouraging signal for Q2 GDP growth. That said, US data would have to be fairly impressive to reignite market speculation that the Fed may after all raise rates in June. At this stage the Fed Fund futures imply that there is only 4% probability of a hike on June 15.”