Oil: bulls encouraged by softer dollar outlook - BBH

Analysts at Brown Brother Harriman dig into the outlook for oil.

Key Quotes:

"The July light sweet crude oil futures contract slipped marginally last week, snapping a three-week advance.  No one really expected OPEC to agree to a freeze as realpolitik considerations were powerful disincentives.  Nevertheless, as we surmised, a new Saudi oil minister, coupled with the recovery in oil prices created a better atmosphere.  The new effort to regroup was reflected by the agreement on a new Secretary General for OPEC. 

The July contract has been tracking the 20-day moving average, which is now found a little above $48.  It closed once since April 7below this moving average.  The broad sideways trading, mostly between $47 and $50 a barrel has seen momentum indicators weaken, but the market does not appear to have given up on pushing it higher, especially in a soft US dollar environment."