China headed for further slowdown? - Nomura

Analysts at Nomura noted how Chinese export growth in USD terms declined further to -4.1% y-o-y in May from -1.8% in April, pointing to sluggish external demand.

Key Quotes:

"Import growth in USD terms rose to -0.4% y-o-y from -10.9%, led by ordinary imports, which resulted in a wider trade surplus of USD50.0bn. • As we believe debt-fuelled investment growth is not sustainable and trade growth will likely remain weak, we maintain our view of a gradual slowdown over the rest of this year. The contraction in exports deepened further due to sluggish external demand Export growth in USD terms fell further to -4.1% y-o-y in May from -1.8% in April.

Underlying export growth could be worse, as USD continued to depreciate against EUR (by 1.3% y-o-y in May) and JPY (9.9%), which should have raised the USD value of contracts denominated in those currencies. Export growth to major destinations largely fell in May; exports to the US to -12.0% y-o-y in May from -9.3% in April and exports to the EU fell to -2.1% from 3.2%, but exports to Japan improved to -5.6% from -11.8% (at least partly benefitting from JPY appreciation). We expect export growth to remain in negative territory as there are few signs that external demand is improving."