UK unemployment rate expected to print 5.1% for May – RBC CM

Research Team at RBC Capital Markets, suggests that for what would be a sixth consecutive month, the UK unemployment rate is expected to print at 5.1% for May.

Key Quotes 

“Employment gains are expected to be modest again – think about something more like in the region of the 21k gain in February or the 44k gain in March than the 257k or 195k gains of November and December.

Average earnings growth for April could well show deterioration in the including bonuses measure as base effects kick in. That might see a number as low as 1.5% 3m/y from 2.0% 3m/y last time. However, on the less volatile exbonuses measure a more modest change to 2.0% 3m/y from 2.1% 3m/y is expected. Overall, there isn’t much to shift expectations for annual pay growth away from about 2% for the time being.”