UK CPI inflation expected at 0.5% y/y for May – RBC CM

Research Team at RBC, forecasts UK’s CPI inflation of 0.5% y/y for May, up from 0.3% y/y in April.

Key Quotes

“For RPI inflation, we see a jump to 1.6% y/y from 1.3% y/y. In the scenario of a “Remain” vote at the EU referendum, we expect a gradual pick-up in inflation into the end of the year but with CPI inflation still being well below the 2% target. In the event of a “Leave” vote at the EU referendum, a quite different profile for inflation would be expected.”