USD/JPY: technicals favour the downside - Scotiabank

JPY has been remarkably resilient through the broader market turn that began last week and will be extremely vulnerable through the next 48 hours as market participants look to the UK referendum, with technicals favouring USD/JPY downside, according to Eric Theoret, FX Strategist at Scotiabank.

Key Quotes

“JPY is steady, consolidating within a remarkably tight range around Tuesday’s close, its relative performance notable in an environment of risk-appetite. JPY has been remarkably resilient through the broader market turn that began last week, with impressive gains against its safe haven peer gold.”

“JPY will be extremely vulnerable through the next 48 hours as market participants look to the UK referendum, its outcome, and the implications for the broader market tone. Measures of sentiment have remained relatively steady with risk reversals consolidating the recent rise in the premium for protection against JPY strength.”

“USDJPY short-term technicals: bearish—trend and momentum signals are broadly bearish and Tuesday’s bullish outside range failed to generate a key reversal with a close above Monday’s high. We highlight near-term resistance at 104.80 and support below 103.80.”