Dollar Index: So far, a transition period within an uptrend - SocGen

Stéphanie Aymes, Research Analyst at Societe Generale, suggests that the US Dollar has been undergoing a transition phase bearing compelling similarities with that of the S&P500 in timing (a year) and shape (within a lateral channel).

Key Quotes

“However, we expect the US Dollar to become gradually firmer against G10 and, most importantly, EM currencies overall, but in particular against the Japanese yen where conditions (extreme positioning as in 2012) for a corrective rebound are reunited.

After an impressive rally which led to a temporary peak in 2015 at 100.40, the Dollar Index also has been changing regime and evolving within a flat consolidation (92.50/10-100.40). The lower part of the consolidation intersects the multi-decade descending trend line and the upward channels in force since 2008 and 2011. Even though Open Interest has been falling sharply for a year, the uptrend since 2008 still persists. This suggests the Index remains within an uptrend but is currently in a transition period towards possibly a new softer uptrend. 92.50/92.10 remains a key and pivotal support area. Only a definite violation below would affirm a turnaround in the trend.”