Europe: The only certainty is uncertainty – ANZ

Research Team at ANZ, notes that the European leaders appear to want to move forward with Brexit plans as quickly as possible, but political turmoil within Britain suggests a quick turnaround is unlikely.

Key Quotes

“Overnight, Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn lost a no-confidence vote by 172 votes to 40. Despite this resounding loss and the resignation of more than 50 of his team in the past three days, Corbyn said he has no plans to step down. The vote, like the referendum, is advisory rather than binding.

On the Conservative side, a Yougov poll saw Theresa May (19%) edge ahead of Boris Johnson (18%) as favoured candidate for the next Prime Minister. Such developments suggest a general election might be required to sort things out, prolonging exit negotiations with Europe.

Separately, at the emergency EU meeting in Brussels, frustration with Britain’s stance is evident. The Belgian Prime Minister said that “The EU can’t afford being held hostage by the U.K. political crisis for months”. The 27 EU member states, excluding Britain, are expected to hold a separate meeting on Wednesday morning to discuss Brexit but they will also focus on ideas on how to change the European Union.”