CAD: Retail Sales and CPI in the limelight - TDS

Research Team at TDS, suggests that the data flow picks up in Canada with the simultaneous release of May retail sales and June CPI.

Key Quotes

“While higher gasoline prices will help to support consumer spending, an anticipated slowdown in auto sales should ultimately drive a 0.2% m/m decline in total retail activity, which is slightly above the -0.3% m/m consensus. Excluding the impact of auto sales, we are in line with the market and call for an unchanged print.

For CPI, we are slightly above the market on headline and look for 0.2% m/m and 1.5% y/y, while core prices should see a 0.1% decline while inflation slows to 2.0% (market: headline 0.1% m/m, 1.4% y/y; core -0.1% m/m, 2.0% y/y).

US: Things will be considerably quieter in the US, where Markit Manufacturing PMI is the sole release. We look for a strengthening in the index from 51.3 to 52.2 while the market looks for a small increase to 51.5.”