US: October surprise in the Presidential contest - BBH

Research Team at BBH, notes that there has been much talk of an October surprise in the US Presidential contest and indeed there has been such a surprise that could very well not only determine the national presidential race, but also the control of the legislative branch. 

Key Quotes

“There have been two such surprises. WikiLeaks show Clinton campaign as strategic opportunist, and may deepen fissure with Sanders' supporters. However, there are a couple of mitigating factors. Sanders is not a Democrat. The Democratic Party helps its party members.  In addition, since getting Sanders' endorsement, Clinton has moved into the space seemingly abandoned by the Republican Convention of what are known as the three-Fs (faith, family and flag) to appeal to independents and the so-called Reagan Democrats.  

The other mitigating factor is the other October surprise, and that is the implosion of Trump's campaign.  Ironically, unlike the private email made public in the WikiLeaks, the Trump tapes have been in the public space.    They have not been brought to the public's attention by Trump's adversaries.  Until now neither the traditional or social media have not covered it. 

Struggling since the fallout from the first debate, Trumps tapes proved the final straw for many in the Republican establishment who had gone along with the results of the primary contests.  Reports indicate that at least 15 Republican Senators, 25 Representatives, and six Governors have either retraced their previous support for called for Trump to step down.  There does not appear to be a mechanism to force Trump off the ticket, and the candidate has denied such intentions.  The impact on Senate and House races will be closely scrutinized.  There is still a greater chance that the Democrats capture the Senate, but some polls suggest the House is in play as well.”