RBNZ: Expects a further 25bp cut in the OCR in November - Westpac

Sean Callow, Research Analyst at Westpac, expects a further 25bp cut in the RBNZ’s OCR in November, to a new low of 1.75%.

Key Quotes

“The RBNZ kept the Official Cash Rate at its record low of 2% in September, as fully expected given official commentary since the August rate cut. But they reiterated that “further policy easing will be required to ensure that future inflation settles near the middle of the target range.”

The RBNZ repeated that a decline in the exchange rate is “needed”, quite strong as far as the RBNZ’s choice of words goes.

Pricing for a cut at this meeting had drifted lower until RBNZ’s McDermott repeated the easing message on 11 October. A cut is now 85% priced.

Whether there will be a need for more rate cuts beyond 1.75% is still open to debate, but growth and the housing market seem likely to argue against it.”