USD: FBI provides last minute boost for Hillary Clinton – MUFG
Lee Hardman, Currency Analyst at MUFG, notes that the US dollar has strengthened in the Asian trading session alongside the Mexican peso following the announcement yesterday from the FBI that it has decided to take no action against Hillary Clinton over new emails related to her private server.
Key Quotes
“In a letter to congress the director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation James Comey stated that “based on our review, we have not changed our conclusions that we expressed in July“ that Hillary Clinton had been “extremely careless” in handling classified information, but there was no grounds to recommend prosecution. The announcement from the FBI provides a last minute boost for Hillary Clinton’s campaign and helps to remove the uncertainty which could have clouded the early days of her Presidency if she wins in tomorrow’s election.
Nevertheless, the FBI’s decision to re-open the probe at the end of last month has already damaged Hillary Clinton’s campaign. Her lead in the national popular vote has since declined by around 3 percentage points and the rate of decline accelerated in the days following the announcement that the FBI probe had been re-opened. It is likely now too late to pick up much evidence in the remaining polls of a potential rebound in her support so close to the elections.
It could prove a crucial last minute development given the polls are signalling an increasingly close race. Hillary Clinton’s lead in the national polls has narrowed to between 2 and 3 percentage points. The polls also reveal that Hillary Clinton has only a slender lead in the key swing states. According to fivethirtyeight.com’s models they estimate that the likelihood of Hillary Clinton becoming President is around two thirds compared to one third for Donald Trump. A high number of undecided voters this year also adds to the uncertainty. Overall the polls continue to suggest that the market should not become overly confident that Hillary Clinton will become President.”