US Elections: The end is in sight...and it looks like Trump - ING

Rob Carnell, Chief International Economist at ING, suggests that after a long night, and some very close races, the arithmetic of US electoral college votes makes it very hard for Clinton to achieve the 270 votes needed to win.

Key Quotes

“The count is not quite over, and there are still a few key swing states to announce their votes.  But where this remains the case, Trump is leading, and often quite comfortably. It would now take quite a turnaround in the remaining votes in almost all of the remaining key swing states to give Clinton a chance of winning the keys to the White House. Otherwise, the new US President will be Donald Trump.

Financial markets are reacting with some alarm, with equity futures down sharply, and longer term bond yields falling. The USD has weakened against the EUR, while currencies such as the MXN have weakened further on fears of a more protectionist US.

Whilst it may be only a few hours before we hear confirmation of what we now suspect in terms of this result, it is likely to be longer still before we get more clarity on the policy intentions of Donald Trump. Aggressive protectionism is probably the greatest threat to US and global growth and financial markets, and more expansionary fiscal policy the greatest opportunity for stronger growth. Exactly what mix of these two opposing policy stances will follow may not be fully clear for months. In the meantime, the Federal Reserve is likely to view the market jitters with dismay - equivalent to a financial market tightening. And the case for a December rate hike from the Fed has diminished substantially.”