USD: Trump’s 100 day plan seems more benign - ING

Research Team at ING, suggests that markets are pausing for breath after a frenetic couple of weeks following Trump’s victory.

Key Quotes

“Second-guessing Trump’s policies remains the main challenge, although the President-elect gave some clues in a YouTube 100 day manifesto yesterday. His short update highlighted what his transition team would prioritise being achieved through the President’s executive powers (i.e. not requiring congressional approval). The top three initiatives were:  1) withdrawing from TPP, 2) reducing restrictions on US energy production/investment and 3) reducing regulation. Notably neither NAFTA nor China were mentioned here, questioning how hard the Trump administration will pursue Mexico and China with potentially damaging import tariffs. This should allow the market to continue focusing on the more benign, reflationary Trump and keep 10 year Treasury yields and the dollar near recent highs. For today we see DGOs and FOMC minutes, the latter pointing to a December hike now fully priced by the markets. DXY to consolidate in a 100.65-101.30 range before pushing to 101.50 again.”