US retail sales likely increased 0.5% in November - Nomura

Research Team at Nomura expects US core retail sales to continue to grow albeit at a slower pace in November.

Key Quotes

“The ISM nonmanufacturing business activity index was at 61.7, a modest improvement from 57.7 in October and indicating that business activity in the services sector grew at a faster pace. But hiring in the core retail sector slowed slightly, and there may likely be some negative payback as the prior month’s reading was much stronger than expectations. Taking these factors into account, we forecast core retail sales increased by 0.3% m-o-m in November (Consensus: 0.3%).”

“On noncore components, we expect sales for motor vehicles and parts to show a modest decline in November after strong performance in previous months as the pace total vehicle sales slowed. Gasoline prices grew steadily but at a slower pace in November, which may have slightly dampened nominal sales at gasoline stations. As such, we expect retail sales excluding autos to have increased 0.5% (Consensus: 0.4%). With autos, we forecast that total retail sales grew 0.3% in November (Consensus: 0.3%).”