EUR/PLN seen at 4.32 in 6-month – Danske Bank

Chief Analyst at Danske Bank Jakob Christensen expects the Polish Zloty to pick up further pace in the medium term.

Key Quotes

“The PLN has staged a slightly faster comeback than we thought in December. Part of the reason is the improvement in macro-data but also a weaker momentum in the Trump reflation trade, which had hurt the PLN through a global bond sell-off”.

“Furthermore, the dispute about the Sejm and budget 2017 has been resolved. However, we think renewed momentum in the Trump trade and deterioration in global risk sentiment will be a negative factor for the PLN”.

“As a result, we expect the PLN to remain around current levels in 1-3M and then to strengthen further out. Hence, our forecast for EUR/PLN is 4.37 (4.42 previously) in 1M, expecting a fall to 4.35 (4.40before) in 3M, 4.32 (4.35 before) in 6M and 4.30 in 12M, respectively”.