EUR/GBP: testing the base of the cloud, political risks mounting to the downside?

Currently, EUR/GBP is trading at 0.8536, down -0.08% on the day, having posted a daily high at 0.8555 and low at 0.8509.

EUR/GBP's rally of late was capped well below the top of the cloud at 0.8677 and imoku 2 at 0.8651 and now the pair is testing the base of that same cloud down at 0.8510 with a slight breach as per aforementioned lows. There is now a negative bias again, both technically and fundamentally.

IMF: Greece won’t meet fiscal surplus targets set by creditors - Bloomberg

Other than the continuing concerns over Greece coming to the surface again, the EU elections with Holland and France all coming up within the next month and two months respectively will start to weigh significantly on the euro, especially as polls have already started to favour the populist parties, at least in the case of the French first rounds with Le Pen taking the lead. In respect of Brexit, while concerns remain, the UK economy has so far proven rather resilient and indeed there have even been some significant improvements against what the bearish 'experts' had all been warning of. In an environment where the dollar is losing its edge, the pound could excel in the absence of negative shocks to the UK economy, 

EUR/GBP levels

Analysts at Commerzbank While the cross has taken a bearish turn down to the bottom of the cloud, analysts at Commerzbank explained that below there losses could be triggered initially towards the 200-day ma at 0.8551 today and that this guards the 0.8304 December low. "Above 0.8677 would allow for another run up to key resistance offered by Fibo resistance and the recent high at 0.8852/53. We assume that .8852/53 is a short-term top for the market."