Brexit bargaining power in government’s hands ? - Natixis

Analysts at Natixis offer brief insights on the way forward for the UK PM May, as she gears up to trigger the Article 50 by early March.

Key Quotes:

“The Brexit bill passed unaltered and easily by the House of Commons. The parliament did not secure i/ more scrutiny in Brexit negotiations, ii/ regular consultation with devolved parliaments, iii/ final say on the Brexit deal (as if rejected the UK would exit without any deal) and iv/ protection of current EU citizens living in the UK (as this would make tariff-free access to EU market a priority).“

“There is still a chance that the unelected House of Lords, in which Theresa May does not have a majority, will secure some amendments, giving the parliament more scrutiny and say on Brexit negotiations and final deal with the EU.“

“While the parliament may obtain some more scrutiny of the negotiations with the EU, the final vote on Brexit deal seems unlikely to go through, as if rejected, the UK would fall back on applying WTO rules.”

“The government plans to complete the legislative process by March 7, but the passage of the Brexit bill in the House of Lords is likely to be delayed, possibly but rather unlikely beyond March 2017.”