Netherlands: Will Geert Wilders be the new prime minister? - Rabobank

On March 15th the Netherlands will elect a new Tweede Kamer (lower house), and by extension a new government notes research team at Rabobank.

Key Quotes

“Echoing the British ‘Leave’ in the EU-referendum and the election of Donald Trump as president of the US, the latest opinion polls show a rise of populism in the Netherlands as well. What are the odds of Geert Wilders and his eurosceptic PVV forming part of the new government?”

“We have identified three scenarios. In the most likely scenario, the PVV wins the elections, but fails to form a government. In the second scenario, the VVD wins the elections and forms a government. In the least likely scenario, the PVV wins and manages to form a government.”

“It’s important to point out that it is not set in stone that any future coalition will govern for a full four-year term. Similarly, it’s difficult to assess exact policy changes in both scenarios, given that many parties are involved, which implies heavy bargaining and compromising.”