Bond traders are calling Fed’s March rate hike bluff - BBG

Bloomberg out with a piece on Monday, highlighting that traders see slightly more than a one-in-three chance the Federal Reserve (Fed) raises rates. That’s well short of the 50% minimum that has predicated every rate hike in the past quarter-century, according to data compiled by Bianco Research.

Jim Bianco of Bianco Research noted, “The market recognizes it has a veto over the Fed. It might be too late at that point for them to do anything, even if we get eye-popping numbers.”

Currently, the odds are decidedly against an increase in March. Futures traders are pricing in just a 40% probability for a rate lift-off at March meeting.