US data preview and review - Nomura

Analysts at Nomura offered a Review and preview of US data.

Key Quotes:

"Initial jobless claims:

Initial jobless claims fell 19k to 223k in the week ending 25 February from a downwardly revised 242k in the previous week (Consensus: 245k). The 4-week moving average fell to 234k, its lowest level in decades, down 6k from the previous week and continuing a downward trend since April 2009. Continuing claims increased slightly to 2066k from 2063k the week before but remained within a prolonged downtrend. The continued decline in unemployment insurance claims suggests that involuntary separations remain low as businesses become more inclined to hold on to existing workers. This release suggests a healthy labor market and follows positive labor indicators from other business surveys, highlighting the potential for a strong employment report reading on 10 March. 

Preview ISM non-manufacturing: 

The headline index was elevated at 56.5 in January. The latest survey-based measures of business activity suggest high optimism likely continued in February. The retail and services-providing sector payrolls increased modestly in January. Moreover, steady payroll gains in this sector suggest healthy activity continued in February. Therefore, we expect the ISM non-manufacturing index to have somewhat improved in February and forecast a reading of 57.0 (Consensus: 56.5)."