US: Third estimate of Q4 GDP revised up by two-tenths to 2.1% - Nomura

Analysts at Nomura note that the third estimate of US Q4 GDP was revised up by two-tenths to 2.1% from a preliminary estimate of 1.9% (Consensus: 2.0%, Nomura: 1.9%).

Key Quotes

“Relative to our forecast, household service consumption and inventory investment came in a little stronger than expected. Excluding those components, major subcomponents of GDP were broadly in line with our expectations. Looking forward, more inventory accumulation in Q4 means less output in Q1, which could detract from economic growth in Q1.”

“Q1 GDP tracking update: Stronger-than-expected inventory accumulation in Q4 raised the jumping-off point for inventory investment in Q1, which was negative to Q1 GDP. As a result, our Q1 GDP tracking estimate was revised lower by one-tenth to 1.0% from 1.1%. Note that we will update Q1 GDP tracking again after the February personal spending, along with a revised monthly profile for prior months, is released tomorrow.”