US: Consumer sentiment, core PCE inflation and income/spending data in the limelight - TDS

Analysts at TDS explain that there are plethora of economic releases from today’s US session including consumer sentiment, core PCE inflation and income/spending.

Key Quotes

“Nominal personal spending is forecast by TD to advance by 0.3% m/m in February, above the market consensus for a 0.2% gain. For personal incomes, TD shares the market consensus for a 0.4% increase, in line with the advance in hours worked and hourly wages.”

“We also share the market consensus for both the headline and core PCE deflators. For headline, we look for a 0.1% m/m gain to push year-ago inflation to 2.1% from 1.9%, breaking the 2% threshold for the first time since 2012. For core, we look for inflation to remain unchanged at 1.7% y/y on a 0.2% m/m increase, though we see upside risks.”

“University of Michigan consumer sentiment for March will be released later in the morning; while markets do not expect any drift from the initial print of 97.6, we are wary of any pullback following the failed healthcare debacle. Markets will keep a close eye on long-term inflation expectations, which fell to a low of 2.2% in the initial reading.”

“Chicago PMI for March is also set to be released and markets expect a modest pullback to 56.9. Looking to the Fed, President Dudley will give an interview at 9:00 ET and we will also hear from Bullard and Kashkari.”