US: 10-year yields moved back above 2.20% - BBH

Analysts at BBH explain that the US 10-year yields moved back above 2.20%, but until they manage to get back above 2.30%, it is not clear that the low is in place. 

Key Quotes

“Indeed, they have struggled to get above 2.25%.  The June note futures contract has built a shelf around 125-24.  A break of that is necessary to boost confidence that a top is in place.  The technical indicators are stretched but do not confirm a top.  A move above 126-20, last week's high, signals a move toward 127-00 and possibly 127-30, which corresponds to the 50% and 61.8% retracement objectives (on a continuation contract basis) of the sell-off since the US election last November.”

“The S&P 500 rose for the first time in three weeks, and the 0.85 gain was the most since mid-February.  When everything is said and done, the S&P 500 is still about 2% from its record high seen at the start of last month.  The most likely scenario, from a technical perspective, may be continued consolidation (in a potential larger triangle or wedge pattern).  The April low is above the March low, while lower highs have been recorded.  That down sloping upper trendline is seen in the 2360-2365 area.”