US: Trump administration risking its reputation - AmpGFX

The research team at Amplifying Global FX Capital points out that many are scratching their heads as to why Trump is trying to do so much this week as he may be over-burdening Congress by pushing for passage of a healthcare bill to repeal and replace Obamacare and releasing tax cuts plans in the same week as the deadline for a funding bill. 

Key Quotes

“If divisions over the healthcare and tax policy are brought to the foreground, it may limit the ability of Congress to make compromises necessary to pass the funding bill.  Trump is likely to take the blame if the funding bill fails to pass.”

“Furthermore, Trump has indicated that he wants some funds in the new funding bill for the Mexican border wall.  Democrats are unlikely to support any bill that directly funds the wall.”

“Republicans have a majority in both houses of Congress.  However, the Democrats have enough seats in the Senate to force a filibuster on the funding bill, preventing it being called to a vote.  41 seats in the 100 seat Senate are all that is required to prevent a vote on bills.”

“The Republicans invoked the so-called nuclear option to force a vote on the confirmation on Gorsuch to the Supreme Court, but it would be much more controversial and essentially out of the question to do so on legislative bills, including funding bills, especially on the first try.”

“As such, Trump and the Republican Party still need some Democratic support to pass funding bills.  The same is true for all bills; including those required for the passage of tax reform and healthcare. And Democrats could hold the government hostage over funding bills or raising the debt ceiling; in the same way that Republicans essentially did at times during the Obama administration.”

“The Democrats might not want to be blamed for government shutdowns or market disruption, and thus will tend towards voting for funding bills, but only if they do not include significant and controversial policies.  The Mexican border wall is likely to be a sticking point.  It is possible that Congress could navigate around this issue by providing a modest increase in funding for border security.”

“Trump may also be damaging the possibility of easy passage of bills this week by resuming his antagonizing Twitter feed.  He tweeted again that “Mexico will be paying, in some form, for the badly needed border wall.” But suggested that he wants funding to start the wall this week.”

“He also commented on the reporting on opinion polls calling “much of the media” fake and he “Would still beat Hillary in a popular vote” (He lost the popular vote?).  And jabbing at Democrats with “ObamaCare is in serious trouble.  The Dems need big money to keep it going – otherwise it dies far sooner that anyone thought.”

“Democrats are less likely to support a funding bill if Trump is politicizing these contentious issues (border wall and Healthcare).”