Germany: Robust economic releases - BBH

Analysts at BBH note that Germany reported trade and industrial production figures for March which showed that German industrial output fell 0.4% in March, which is nearly half the decline that many economists expected after a sharp 2.2% increase in February, which was subsequently revised to 1.8%.  

Key Quotes

“Net-net, the year-over-year figure was nearly steady at 1.9% rather than the revised 2.0% pace posted in February.”

“The German trade surplus, a source of widespread criticism (EU, ECB, US), jumped by a quarter in March to 25.4 bln euros from 20.0 in February.  Export growth slowed to 0.4% after a revised 0.9%.  Imports, which had fallen 1.6% in February, rose 2.4% in March, which was more than expected.  The German current account jumped to a new record high of 30.2 bln euros (from 20.7 bln).  The current account was flattered by what seems to be a seasonal increase in primary income (investment income) and a small deficit on secondary income (aid).”

“Germany reports the first estimate of Q1 GDP at the end of the week.  The economy appears to have accelerated in Q1 to 0.6% from 0.4% in Q4 16.  Over the past four, eight, and 12 quarters, the Germany economy has averaged 0.4% growth.”