4 Feb 2014
AUD/USD flat; RBA approaches
FXStreet (Guatemala) - AUD/USD has been steady all the way into Asia, drifting in a sideways widening channel between 0.8760 and 0.8740 ahead of the RBA.
The statement from the RBA is what will be closely monitored and the wording used, opposed to what action the RBA will take this time around. Sean Callow, strategist at Westpac explained, “…Today’s statement will have to include some new language on inflation and presumably AUD. At the Dec meeting, with AUD/USD around 0.91, the RBA deemed the currency to be “still uncomfortably high”, a verdict that seems hard to justify now (AUD TWI has fallen -3.7% since the last meeting). We suspect this phrase will be dropped or at least watered down but we may still hear that a weaker AUD is “likely to be needed to achieve balanced growth”, more of a long term comment. AUD/USD seems likely to emerge somewhat higher after the statement, but Friday’s SoMP seems the bigger RBA event for the week”.
AUD/USD Levels
The 20 DMA is 0.8847, the 50 DMA is 0.8935 and the 200 DMA is 0.9287. RSI (14) reads 35.93. Supports are ascending from 0.8544, 0.8623, 0.8633, 0.8660. Spot is 0.8745 while resistances are 0.8826, 0.8858, 0.8889 and 0.8934.
The statement from the RBA is what will be closely monitored and the wording used, opposed to what action the RBA will take this time around. Sean Callow, strategist at Westpac explained, “…Today’s statement will have to include some new language on inflation and presumably AUD. At the Dec meeting, with AUD/USD around 0.91, the RBA deemed the currency to be “still uncomfortably high”, a verdict that seems hard to justify now (AUD TWI has fallen -3.7% since the last meeting). We suspect this phrase will be dropped or at least watered down but we may still hear that a weaker AUD is “likely to be needed to achieve balanced growth”, more of a long term comment. AUD/USD seems likely to emerge somewhat higher after the statement, but Friday’s SoMP seems the bigger RBA event for the week”.
AUD/USD Levels
The 20 DMA is 0.8847, the 50 DMA is 0.8935 and the 200 DMA is 0.9287. RSI (14) reads 35.93. Supports are ascending from 0.8544, 0.8623, 0.8633, 0.8660. Spot is 0.8745 while resistances are 0.8826, 0.8858, 0.8889 and 0.8934.