RTRS Poll: Treasury yields seen rising over the next year, not following Fed's lead

The latest Reuters poll of over 60 strategists conducted during June 19-22, suggests yield rises over the next year will at best track the Federal Reserve's current intended rate-increase path.

Key findings of the survey:

“The poll forecasts no major changes to the spread between two-year and 10-year notes from three months ago, the spread between five-year notes and 30-year bonds is the narrowest in nearly a decade, when the financial crisis was gathering pace.

The latest Reuters poll median puts the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield at 2.90 percent in a year, the same forecast as made in the March poll.

That year-ahead forecast is similar to what was predicted in December 2014, when the Fed had just begun winding down its quantitative easing programme.

The spread between 10-year Treasuries and much lower-yielding German bunds over the forecast period is predicted to hold roughly steady at around 210 basis points compared with just three months ago.”