Germany: HICP to slip in June to 1.3% y/y - TDS

Analysts at TDS are looking for German HICP to slip another tenth lower in June to 1.3% y/y, which is in line with consensus, although TDS thinks that the risks lie to the downside.

Key Quotes

“The main source of the drag is expected to be energy prices where the contribution to the y/y headline rate is set to fall from its peak of 0.8ppts in February down to slightly negative in June, the first negative contribution since November.”

“SEK: We’re in line with consensus in looking for a 0.2% m/m gain for May retail sales today. After the 1.3% jump in April, this should leave Q2 with fairly strong momentum in consumer spending.”

“UK: The debate and vote on the Queen’s speech are expected to take place this afternoon/evening. Now that the Conservatives have reached a deal with the DUP, and assuming that they can get a full turnout of MPs, the government should have the numbers to get it through parliament.”