10 Feb 2014
Flash: EUR/USD risks geared towards test of 1.33/1.34 - TDS
FXStreet (Bali) - The short-tem trend in EUR/USD remains clearly lower, notes Shaun Osborne, Chief FX Strategist at TD Securities.
Key Quotes
"EURUSD remains—so far—below the 100-day MA, making lower lows and lower highs on the daily. But the turn lower through the New Year might be developing a bullish consolidation pattern (bull wedge)."
"We rather favour more choppy range trade for the moment as the market is showing little in the way of trending bias (daily oscillator signals are weak and trending weaker)."
"We still rather think risks are geared towards a test of 1.33/1.34 after the reversal from 1.38/1.39 but conviction is low."
"The weekly chart reaffirms the uncertainties implied by the above analysis. Despite the overall track lower over the past two months, EURUSD has changed direction on a weekly close basis for nine consecutive weeks now."
Even if you had a view—any view—it would be hard to manage positions with that sort of volatility. Trend momentum on the weekly studies is slackening even as the market slides lower towards retracement supports (expect 1.3320 to be firm), suggesting little strong underlying bias here.12
Key Quotes
"EURUSD remains—so far—below the 100-day MA, making lower lows and lower highs on the daily. But the turn lower through the New Year might be developing a bullish consolidation pattern (bull wedge)."
"We rather favour more choppy range trade for the moment as the market is showing little in the way of trending bias (daily oscillator signals are weak and trending weaker)."
"We still rather think risks are geared towards a test of 1.33/1.34 after the reversal from 1.38/1.39 but conviction is low."
"The weekly chart reaffirms the uncertainties implied by the above analysis. Despite the overall track lower over the past two months, EURUSD has changed direction on a weekly close basis for nine consecutive weeks now."
Even if you had a view—any view—it would be hard to manage positions with that sort of volatility. Trend momentum on the weekly studies is slackening even as the market slides lower towards retracement supports (expect 1.3320 to be firm), suggesting little strong underlying bias here.12