AUD/USD intermarket: risk not supporting an attack at key 0.7600 pivot ( 1hr 50 sma)

Currently, AUD/USD is trading at 0.7585, down -0.24% on the day, having posted a daily high at 0.7617 and low at 0.7577.

AUD: Under pressure from RBA - Westpac

Despite data releases that should have been underpinning strength in the Aussie, AUD/USD has been drifting to the downside, losing the 0.76 handle with a mixed picture in the dollar. 

Australia's May trade balance: A big beat on expectations, solid rebound in exports

Overnight, the Australian trade surplus in May widened to AUD 2.471 billion, beating the estimated figure of AUD 1.10 billion. Seasonally adjusted exports jumped 9% m/m, while imports rose 1% m/m. AUD/USD spiked higher to 0.7610 but met a key technical resistance and supply resumed at the 1hr 50 sma, located 10 pips lower today at 0.7599. 

For today, the DXY is down -0.44% from a strong bid in the euro in the US shift, extending gains seen earlier in the day after the ECB minutes, yet the Aussie still remains under water.

The extension to the dollar's downside was due to the ADP Research Institute reported that the economy added 158k jobs in June vs estimates for a gain of 188k; prior month data was revised lower by 23k - not a very positive prelude for tomorrow's nonfarm payrolls.

Elsewhere, the VIX is up to 12, US stocks are down, S&P 500 down 0.4% to 2,421, Dow Jones 78 points lower to 21,401 and Nasdaq down 0.5% as Russell 200 drops 0.5%. The metals are mixed. Thus, the risk tone is not favouring the higher beta currencies such as the Aussie that remains subdued. There is little in the way of a domestic catalyst and eyes are now on US nonfarm payrolls.

AUD/USD levels

There are signs of strong indecision on the charts, but European closes below the 0.76 handle indicate downside potential and a loss of appetite for a test of the 0.7712 peak and reversal level. A sustained break below the ma clusters of 0.7551 and 0.7505 and the daily cloud top would open the support at 0.7505. To the upside, a break of 0.7624 (Fibo 38.2% of 0.7712/0.7571 pullback / 10 SMA) could be a signal for a meaningful reversal taking shape of 0.7712 downsides. A bullish extension above 0.7658 (Fibo 61.8%) is needed to confirm.